How to run your own simulations

Please feel free to use and modify the programs as you like. For example, the forecasting can be updated with new opinion polls, the variables used to forecast the election can be changed, and different statistics can be computed in the simulations. 

Download this zip file. The file HowToSimulateElections.doc contains instruction on how to updata the polling data, estimate and simulate the model. The zip-file also contains four Stata do-files.

• 1_datastep.do assembles the data.
• 2_estimation estimates the model.
• 3_simulation simulates election outcomes and derives win probabilities, etc.
• 4_Qs.do computes the statistic Qs that drives campaigning.

Finally, the zip-file contains the data files used when estimating the model, including opinion poll data available October 1.