David Strömberg
WH 2008 Analysis, May 29
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International Economic Studies
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Last updated,
October 1, 2008
How the probabilities are estimated
These are the results underlying my column in WSJ with Justin Wolfers, June 12, 2008.
|
Probability of winning |
| Obama | McCain |
| 65% | 45% |
|
Expected vote share |
| Obama | McCain |
| 51% | 49% |
|
Expected number of electoral votes |
| Obama | McCain |
| 294 | 244 |
Obama has an 65 percent chance of winning the elections, receiving an average vote-share of 51 percent of the two-party vote share and an average 394 electoral votes.
The table below show the forecasted democratic vote shares (absent the Bradley effect), win percentages and the share of candidate visits that should go to each state, based on opinion polls available May 29.
|
Forcasted votes, probabilities, by state |
|
State |
Forc. Dem.vote |
Dem. win probability |
Campaign share |
|
FLORIDA |
49.5 |
44.9 |
12.6 |
|
OHIO |
51.1 |
60.4 |
12.3 |
|
PENNSYLVANIA |
53.4 |
79.8 |
8.9 |
|
MICHIGAN |
52.8 |
75.7 |
7.9 |
|
COLORADO |
50.6 |
55.9 |
5.1 |
|
VIRGINIA |
48.7 |
37.6 |
5.0 |
|
CALIFORNIA |
56.2 |
93.6 |
4.9 |
|
MISSOURI |
49.2 |
42.3 |
4.3 |
|
WISCONSIN |
52.9 |
76.4 |
3.6 |
|
IOWA |
52.4 |
71.5 |
3.2 |
|
MINNESOTA |
54.5 |
86.9 |
3.0 |
|
ARIZONA |
47.0 |
23.4 |
2.8 |
|
NEW JERSEY |
55.2 |
84.2 |
2.8 |
|
NEW MEXICO |
51.5 |
63.8 |
2.7 |
|
NEVADA |
50.0 |
50.1 |
2.1 |
|
ILLINOIS |
57.8 |
93.8 |
1.9 |
|
NEW HAMPSHIRE |
53.3 |
79.4 |
1.8 |
|
WEST VIRGINIA |
49.9 |
50.0 |
1.7 |
|
WASHINGTON |
55.8 |
92.7 |
1.5 |
|
NORTH CAROLINA |
45.4 |
13.4 |
1.5 |
|
OREGON |
54.8 |
88.2 |
1.5 |
|
ARKANSAS |
47.4 |
26.8 |
1.3 |
|
MARYLAND |
57.4 |
92.9 |
1.2 |
|
GEORGIA |
44.7 |
9.3 |
0.9 |
|
CONNECTICUT |
56.9 |
91.5 |
0.8 |
|
SOUTH CAROLINA |
44.2 |
12.0 |
0.7 |
|
LOUISIANA |
45.1 |
11.7 |
0.6 |
|
TENNESSEE |
44.7 |
9.2 |
0.5 |
|
NORTH DAKOTA |
44.6 |
14.5 |
0.5 |
|
DELAWARE |
55.3 |
85.0 |
0.4 |
|
INDIANA |
44.1 |
7.4 |
0.4 |
|
TEXAS |
42.4 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
|
VERMONT |
58.8 |
96.3 |
0.3 |
|
MAINE |
56.7 |
95.7 |
0.3 |
|
NEW YORK |
59.4 |
99.0 |
0.3 |
|
MISSISSIPPI |
43.3 |
5.2 |
0.2 |
|
OKLAHOMA |
40.0 |
2.1 |
0.2 |
|
HAWAII |
59.1 |
96.6 |
0.1 |
|
RHODE ISLAND |
61.9 |
99.5 |
0.1 |
|
KENTUCKY |
42.4 |
3.0 |
0.1 |
|
SOUTH DAKOTA |
42.8 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
|
MONTANA |
43.9 |
6.8 |
0.0 |
|
MASSACHUSETTS |
63.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
KANSAS |
40.9 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
NEBRASKA |
37.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
ALABAMA |
39.9 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
IDAHO |
36.5 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
UTAH |
31.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
WYOMING |
35.6 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
ALASKA |
41.1 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
|
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA |
|
100.0 |
0.0 |