David Strömberg
WH 2008 Analysis, Oct. 20
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International Economic Studies
Stockholm University
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Last updated,
October 1, 2008
How the probabilities are estimated
|
Probability of winning |
| Obama | McCain |
| 85% | 15% |
|
Expected vote share |
| Obama | McCain |
| 52% | 48% |
|
Expected number of electoral votes |
| Obama | McCain |
| 324 | 214 |
|
Prob. of winning presidency without popular support |
| Obama | McCain |
| 7% | 2% |
Obama's chances of winning is at the same level as the last analysis. Obama has an 85 percent chance of winning the elections, receiving an average vote-share of 52 percent and an average 324 electoral votes. The risk that the president elect will not receive a majority of the popular votes is around 8 percent. It is more likely that Obama will be in this position (7 percent) than McCain (2 percent). Consequently, Obama benefits slightly from having the Electoral College system (this increases his chances of winning by 5 percent).
The table below show the forecasted democratic vote shares, win percentages and the share of candidate visits that should go to each state, based on opinion polls available October 20. Note that, even though the Florida election is more likely to be close, more time should be spent in Ohio than Florida because the Ohio election is more likely to be close when it matters (in the case the national election would be close).
|
Forcasted votes probabilities, by state |
|
|
Forc. Dem.vote |
Dem. win probability |
Campaign share |
|
OHIO |
52.2 |
71.0 |
13.4 |
|
FLORIDA |
50.9 |
58.8 |
13.0 |
|
PENNSYLVANIA |
55.6 |
92.5 |
8.4 |
|
VIRGINIA |
51.6 |
65.7 |
8.1 |
|
MISSOURI |
50.8 |
58.0 |
5.8 |
|
MICHIGAN |
56.1 |
94.2 |
5.4 |
|
COLORADO |
52.1 |
70.1 |
5.3 |
|
WISCONSIN |
54.3 |
86.5 |
5.1 |
|
CALIFORNIA |
58.3 |
98.4 |
4.1 |
|
IOWA |
53.6 |
82.2 |
3.8 |
|
WASHINGTON |
56.4 |
94.9 |
3.0 |
|
NEW MEXICO |
52.9 |
76.8 |
2.9 |
|
NEVADA |
51.9 |
68.3 |
2.9 |
|
MINNESOTA |
56.3 |
94.7 |
2.8 |
|
NEW JERSEY |
57.2 |
96.8 |
2.7 |
|
NORTH CAROLINA |
47.4 |
24.9 |
2.0 |
|
NEW HAMPSHIRE |
54.4 |
86.9 |
2.0 |
|
ILLINOIS |
58.8 |
98.8 |
1.7 |
|
OREGON |
56.8 |
96.0 |
1.5 |
|
GEORGIA |
45.7 |
13.8 |
0.8 |
|
WEST VIRGINIA |
47.3 |
24.3 |
0.7 |
|
MAINE |
57.3 |
97.0 |
0.6 |
|
INDIANA |
45.7 |
13.5 |
0.6 |
|
ARKANSAS |
46.7 |
20.0 |
0.6 |
|
MARYLAND |
59.1 |
99.1 |
0.6 |
|
DELAWARE |
56.8 |
96.0 |
0.5 |
|
CONNECTICUT |
59.0 |
99.0 |
0.5 |
|
NEW YORK |
60.9 |
99.8 |
0.4 |
|
TENNESSEE |
45.0 |
9.9 |
0.3 |
|
TEXAS |
43.6 |
5.0 |
0.3 |
|
LOUISIANA |
44.3 |
6.9 |
0.2 |
|
ARIZONA |
44.1 |
6.4 |
0.1 |
|
MONTANA |
44.9 |
9.3 |
0.1 |
|
KENTUCKY |
43.7 |
5.0 |
0.1 |
|
SOUTH CAROLINA |
43.5 |
4.6 |
0.1 |
|
MASSACHUSETTS |
62.7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
MISSISSIPPI |
42.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
|
NORTH DAKOTA |
42.6 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
|
VERMONT |
63.3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
SOUTH DAKOTA |
42.3 |
2.3 |
0.0 |
|
ALASKA |
41.3 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
|
HAWAII |
62.4 |
99.9 |
0.0 |
|
NEBRASKA |
38.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
KANSAS |
40.6 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
|
OKLAHOMA |
34.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
RHODE ISLAND |
64.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
UTAH |
32.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
WYOMING |
35.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
IDAHO |
32.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA |
|
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
ALABAMA |
37.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |