David Strömberg
WH 2008 Analysis
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International Economic Studies
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Last updated,
October 1, 2008
As described in the paper, the model can be used to simulate a probability distribution over vote outcomes. The results shown below are based on opinion polls available October 1, using out-of-sample prediction errors, see discussion here.
|
Probability of winning |
| Obama | McCain |
| 79% | 21% |
|
Expected vote share |
| Obama | McCain |
| 52% | 48% |
|
Expected number of electoral votes |
| Obama | McCain |
| 324 | 214 |
|
Prob. of winning presidency without popular support |
| Obama | McCain |
| 5% | 3% |
Obama had a 79 percent chance of winning the elections, receiving an average vote-share of 52 percent and an average 324 electoral votes. The risk that the president elect will not receive a majority of the popular votes is around 8 percent. It is more likely that Obama will be in this position (5 percent) than McCain (2 percent). Consequently, Obama benefits slightly from having the Electoral College system (this increases his chances of winning by 3 percent).
The table below show the forecasted democratic vote shares, win percentages and the share of candidate visits that should go to each state, based on opinion polls available October 1.
|
Forcasted votes probabilities, by state |
|
|
Forc. Dem.vote |
Dem. win probability |
Campaign share |
|
FLORIDA |
51.4 |
62.9 |
15.3 |
|
PENNSYLVANIA |
54.2 |
83.2 |
12.6 |
|
OHIO |
52.2 |
70.1 |
10.8 |
|
MICHIGAN |
54.4 |
84.6 |
7.4 |
|
VIRGINIA |
50.6 |
56.2 |
6.1 |
|
COLORADO |
52.5 |
72.3 |
4.6 |
|
MISSOURI |
49.8 |
48.1 |
4.5 |
|
MINNESOTA |
54.3 |
84.1 |
3.8 |
|
WISCONSIN |
54.9 |
86.9 |
3.3 |
|
NEW JERSEY |
56.7 |
94.0 |
3.2 |
|
NEVADA |
51.1 |
60.0 |
2.8 |
|
WASHINGTON |
56.3 |
93.3 |
2.7 |
|
IOWA |
55.6 |
90.0 |
2.5 |
|
NEW HAMPSHIRE |
53.0 |
76.0 |
2.3 |
|
NEW MEXICO |
54.6 |
86.0 |
2.1 |
|
NORTH CAROLINA |
47.4 |
27.7 |
1.7 |
|
WEST VIRGINIA |
48.6 |
37.5 |
1.6 |
|
ARIZONA |
48.0 |
32.0 |
1.5 |
|
OREGON |
56.8 |
94.2 |
1.5 |
|
ARKANSAS |
47.6 |
28.7 |
1.4 |
|
CALIFORNIA |
59.2 |
98.6 |
1.3 |
|
MAINE |
56.5 |
93.9 |
1.1 |
|
ILLINOIS |
59.5 |
98.6 |
1.1 |
|
INDIANA |
46.7 |
22.8 |
0.9 |
|
GEORGIA |
45.1 |
13.6 |
0.6 |
|
SOUTH CAROLINA |
45.9 |
16.7 |
0.6 |
|
NEW YORK |
60.4 |
99.2 |
0.5 |
|
CONNECTICUT |
59.0 |
98.4 |
0.5 |
|
TEXAS |
43.9 |
7.7 |
0.4 |
|
DELAWARE |
57.7 |
96.7 |
0.4 |
|
LOUISIANA |
44.1 |
8.7 |
0.4 |
|
MARYLAND |
60.2 |
99.3 |
0.4 |
|
TENNESSEE |
43.0 |
5.0 |
0.2 |
|
MONTANA |
44.6 |
10.3 |
0.1 |
|
MISSISSIPPI |
42.6 |
4.4 |
0.1 |
|
SOUTH DAKOTA |
42.7 |
4.7 |
0.1 |
|
WYOMING |
36.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
NORTH DAKOTA |
43.2 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
|
RHODE ISLAND |
63.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
ALABAMA |
37.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
IDAHO |
32.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
MASSACHUSETTS |
64.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
HAWAII |
63.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
NEBRASKA |
38.4 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
OKLAHOMA |
36.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
VERMONT |
64.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
KENTUCKY |
42.4 |
3.7 |
0.0 |
|
ALASKA |
40.9 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
|
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA |
|
100.0 |
0.0 |
|
UTAH |
32.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
KANSAS |
40.9 |
1.6 |
0.0 |